The New Year and the Basketball Hobby

It's hard to know how viable my hobby's future is at this point.  After all, the NBA in general has taken some hits lately.  Attendance is way down in most areas, some franchises are on the verge of financial doom, referee scandals are at the forefront and - most importantly for people like me - the hobby sector of our sport has been singularized into one brand.

I've followed international soccer for some time, so I know that Panini isn't as foreign to the card industry as some people would fear.  They have their brand in some of the biggest leagues of the world, so I'm not worried about them being blind in the dark.  I just worry about monopolizing the source of my collecting OCD.

Two things are going to begin to happen though.  First off, with the open avenues people have to get boxes from years past, people will vote on the future of Panini with their wallets.  Even though Panini has the future, it has no ties to the past.  And people will spend on whichever is the better product.  Panini cannot rest on the license alone. 

Secondly, and this is kind of tied into the first, there may be an expanded new market for boxes from years past.  Some of the better UD and Topps releases will probably see prices rise, while the semi-succesful to the failures of the two companies will be able to be had shortly at really low prices.  We can see this as it's happened with the 03/04 hobby boxes.  The year that ushered in Lebron, Melo and Wade is still the highest priced stuff on the secondary market.  A box of Bowman from that year will now run you $250 plus, if you can even find it.

The same effect will be seen, to varying degrees, now that those companies aren't producing.  My favorite product, the 08/09 Bowman is now always over $100 a box.  It was the last true Bowman product for the hobby - if only because Bowman 48 doesn't count (thanks a lot Bowman).

It'll be interesting to see how the new year unfolds.  Eventually, people who bust basketball will want the chance to pull Michael Jordan and Lebron autos.  Now if Panini needs to get some cut sigs to make it happen, than they need to just make that happen until UD releases their investment into those signers.  But Panini needs to do more.  I don't know what it will need to be.  But it has to be something to keep people buying current product as opposed to defaulting to offerings of the past.

Does that mean forging ahead with all on-card autos?  Maybe.  Will they have to offer their products with ZERO redemptions?  Possibly.

The fact is, UD and Topps have set the market up the way they've wanted it - and we all had to accept it.  Panini, and UD and Topps too, can now use this new landscape to re-invent the wheel as it were.  If your company is only focusing on one sport, you shouldn't have the same issues that you used to.  If you can focus on one sport, and can focus on six to eight offerings instead of 20 - 30 per year, there is no reason why the product and service we get isn't the best possible. 

So here's to 2010.  Be lazy and just say twenty ten.  No more of this two thousand and....crap.  And here's to Panini having their finger on the pulse of the hobby.  Please?