They say that baseball is the love of mathematicians. Stats and more stats. I love baseball. Everybody knows the quality of hitting .300 for the season. Baseball fans know how special it is if a pitcher goes a month with an ERA under 1.00. It's as much math as it is athletics.
I really couldn't find the level of geek math that you find in baseball in basketball. Until now.
And the thing is, it's a pretty popular site. I'm talking about the ESPN's Hollinger PER (Player Efficiency Rating).
It's blowing my mind.
And......AND, it's giving me some serious justification for being a Batum honk. Turns out, when the math is put in, Batum is pretty good. Very good actually.
What is the PER, you ask? The player efficiency rating (PER) is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity. It allows you to compare players against a league average essentially. Hollinger sets the league average (from a really complicated formula) at 15.00 every year. So, if you're favorite player is at a 15.00 rating - it means he'll have a job next year, but he's no All-Star.
Of course, Lebron is number 1 in the rankings. His rating is 32.03 - that's really good. Best player in the league.
So I started looking at my Blazers. Oden still leads the team with 23.31, and that's good enough for 8th in league. Damn, he was having a monster season. I really wish he could stay healthy.
Second on the team, and 16th in the league, is Brandon Roy with a 22.10 rating.
Third on the team? Anybody, anybody? Nicolas Batum. Rates at 18.52 - for 43rd best in the league. LaMarcus Aldridge (who I thought would be higher) is two spots down at 18.24.
But, there are other stats. I love stats! And Hollinger has a True Shooting % stat. And that is what a player's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)] Math! This formula almost feels like baseball.
And for qualified players, guess where Nicolas Batum is ranking in the league?
He's at number 2, baby. His TS% is at .682 - and Mike Miller is at number 1 with a .683. So that means, if Batum goes on a tear again, he'll be tops in the league.
I've watched sports my whole life, and I just knew Batum was going to be special from Opening Day tip-off last year. I'm so glad the math is backing up what my eyes were telling me. I should be a damn scout.
And class is adjourned.
4 comments:
The Hollinger PER is really pretty cool. I like your baseball analogy. I think as fans, we sometimes have a perception that a player is better or worse than they really are. The PER is a great way to quantify what's actually happening on the court and objectively evaluate players.
On a side note, is anyone playing or going to play Panini's Adrenalyn game? I just want to know what collectors think before I decide to play. I'm leaning toward not playing.
Hey Guy,
Por Vs. Den tonight. Pretty good game. What do you think?
POR vs DEN....not looking good if Nate gets into his lineup 'guru' thing and starts taking hot players out.
Adrenalyne - I'm not sure. I've got to buy a booster or two to see how it goes.
There are a lot better statistical sites then Holinger. Most teams including your Blazers use some form of statistical evaluations. Remember stats are just one part of the picture because I doubt even you would argue that Nazr Mohammed is the 27th best player in the NBA. By the way there are far better stats for evaluating baseball players then Avg and ERA.
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